Clinton: Laughingstock … or Kingmaker?

As darkness drew on what was supposed to be a big Wednesday night for Hillary Clinton — her interviews were to be featured on all the major networks — the evening, and the nomination, went for Barack Obama. The perfectly executed precision bombing that was John Edwards' endorsement of Obama had that effect.

Clinton and her supporters can no longer be excused from not soaking in the reality that is her excruciatingly narrow loss for the nomination of the Democratic Party. Her campaign must now pivot from its indomitable search for a path to victory to devising a strategy for her exit from the race.

Despite her landslide win in West Virginia and expected Kentucky pickup, the question of "if" no longer remains. Clinton will draw down. 

What is of greatest import now is when she decides to shutter the doors, and how.

Clinton's comportment through the end of this nomination process could still shape the outcome of the general election in November. Already, her insistence on continuing the race is blunting the fanfare and post-nomination bump Barack Obama should be enjoying as the now presumptive nominee. If she stares down the abyss and belligerently hammers away at her grasp on favorable demographics, the perception that certain dyed-in-the-wool Democrats will ignore their interests and swing for John McCain could become reality.

Her defiance of conventional wisdom, nay, her denial of the truth, appear to some testimony to her strength and willful self-reliance, traits to be admired, for certain. To others, it smacks of a megalomaniacal disregard for honesty or process, qualities, if they can be called such, more reminiscent of the disdainful and outrageous politics that thrust the Republican machine into the fore and were the eight years of George Bush.

If Clinton continues to drop comments construed as divisive or degrading of Obama's chances in the fall, superdelegates will bury her rhetoric in an avalanche of endorsements. This is likely one of the last tactics they'd seek to employ — the move would silence her campaign, but it would come in the form of public rebuke and humiliation.

They could ignore her. SDs might provide Clinton the opportunity to see the process through while treating and discussing Obama as if he's already the nominee. Here, though, she becomes irrelevant.

Should Clinton continue her ignoble assault on Obama's electability, and should Obama lose to McCain in November, many if not most will blame her. Her petulant indignation in the face of certain defeat will draw ridicule from all quarters — it's already gaining traction on Saturday Night Live — and mockery would crescendo if she is shamed out of the race. 

Her fate is likely set, regardless. As Rep. Jim Clyburn recently noted, Democrats don't run with losers. While Republicans don't always shoot their wounded, Democrats who fail in primaries and general elections don't become presidents. Sure, Clinton could defy that maxim, but the tone and tenor of this contest suggest it's doubtful.

BELLE OF THE BALL

Now is the time for Clinton to write her own story.

That she holds tremendous political sway is undeniable. Her old money contributors — can we refer to them that way yet? — made noise recently by threatening exodus should Michigan and Florida votes remain uncounted. And women were a formidable Clinton bloc.

Instead of chancing political folly through tepid support of Obama's presidential campaign, Clinton can cast herself as savior of party and country by delivering constituencies Obama will need to win the election. 

While it's unlikely Clinton supporters will, when the chips are down, stay home or jump ship and vote McCain, it isn't impossible. If Clinton aggressively advocates for Obama, and if those voters currently viewed as solidly and solely in her corner show up for him in November, Clinton will be celebrated as Midas, her stature prior to her candidacy restored and surpassed.

Behind the president, there is no one with more clout, no one deserving more praise — or favor — than the one who cleared his path.

THERE WILL BE BLOOD

For some Clinton surrogates, chicken exits no longer exist.

Terry McAuliffe has degraded to court jester, a 50 year old child hopped up on Mountain Dew and shouting a laughable script. McAuliffe proclaimed Clinton's West Virginia victory speech the "greatest speech ever." He swears the delegate count necessary for nomination is 2210. He claims Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot for political purposes while ignoring that Clinton only now sees the necessity of seating Michigan's delegates.

Even Clinton's hound, Communications Director Howard Wolfson, cannot bring himself to toe these lines; he has not appeared on television for Clinton since Indiana and North Carolina. Apparently Wolfson's survival instincts have not abandoned him.

Geraldine Ferraro has surely attained martyrdom within certain circles. But her relevance nationally, if she ever had much, is certainly spent. Her ill-conceived comments that suggested being black in America is a political advantage, and her subsequent railing against those who dared imply she made a racially divisive and stupid remark, will follow her forever.

Mark Penn. There's a special place in political purgatory for Penn. 

While there are many others still, none suffer more than Bill Clinton, and that by his own hand. Well, his mouth, actually. 

Bill Clinton left office resoundingly rejected by Republicans and conservative Independents, his stock so low Al Gored refused to utilize him in 2000. 

Ironically, the presidency to which Bill's divisiveness gave birth repaid the favor. As war and economic woe took hold of the country and George Bush's approval rating plummeted, much of America reminisced of Bill Clinton's 90s. He was widely regarded a year ago as Hillary's greatest asset, her most effective surrogate.

Bill's missteps — comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson, reviving Hillary's Bosnia gaffe, saying Obama played the race card on him and then claiming the next day he had not said it — have him once again relegated to the role of village idiot. Fond memories of relative peace and economic prosperity are now stifled every time Bill wags that finger, a dog whistle signifying disingenuousness if not outright lying.

Several times during a crucial stretch where Hillary seemed to cut into Obama's momentum, Bill swooped in and killed her charge. 

During the Bush regime, Bill Clinton rebuilt much of the capital he squandered with Monica Lewinsky. But times, they are a changin'. It's hard to imagine how he redeems himself in this new world order.

Tipping Point

In her latest and most deplorable attempt yet to provide evidence Barack Obama is unelectable, Hillary Clinton has strode forcefully into the racial divide, a foray that should send chills through the remaining uncommitted superdelegates and harken a quick end to her interminable death march to Denver.

In her USA Today interview Tuesday, Clinton stated, "Senator Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again. … There's a pattern emerging here."

As she hammers away at the idea only she can garner the working class vote, Clinton is intentionally inserting a racial element that could only be to one end: She wants to put white voters off Obama in November.

Clinton, it seems, has determined her final path to the presidency. Not this presidency, mind you — that bus ran out of gas in Indiana. Clinton is now clearly eyeing 2012.

CATALYST FOR CONCLUSION?

Clinton's divisive comments, should she continue that tack, will likely heighten the anxiety amongst undeclared SDs and force them to move en masse for Obama. As much as they must want to allow her to choose her own exit strategy, Democrats cannot stand idly by and allow her to diminish the presumptive nominee ahead of an election they absolutely must win.

John Edwards, per his Friday morning talk show circuit, clearly believes Obama is the party's nominee. Since he has remained neutral since suspending his own campaign, Edwards' comments were likely a shot across Clinton's bow, a blatant signal for her to cut with the negative tone.

If Clinton ignores pleas for decent comportment, party elders and heavyweights could approach her soon, this weekend or early next week, and lay out their criterion for allowing her to finish the race versus forcing her out now. If she denies their overtures and appeals to reason, the dam could break Tuesday or Wednesday.

There will be no olive branch in the form of the vice presidency, though. It is canon within the Obama movement the need to shift to a new representation of the American people, one to bridge divides, not exacerbate them. Clinton's adherence to mud-slinging and pandering, hallmarks of the old-world politics that have emboldened Obama's call for change, make it impossible for him to choose her.

ONLY WHITES WORK HARD, APPARENTLY

Why, when Clinton and mainstream media slice demographics, are there working-class whites, but all blacks are lumped together? Are blacks not also hard-working Americans? 

In contrast to Clinton's belief only she can amass the support from white America to win in November, an honest assessment of each candidates' general election viability along demographic lines would more likely conclude that Obama will do fine with whites, while Clinton has a serious problem with blacks.

Determining general election results based on party primary votes is a dubious venture. Going into this process, Democrats were forced to choose between two attractive candidates; the incredibly close popular vote and delegate tallies bear this out. 

As the rhetoric built, though, especially through Bill Clinton's comments post-South Carolina, there was a palpable sense the Clintons were belittling black voters, despite still getting a decent share of black votes. 

Obama's S.C. win, and Bill's subsequent, dismissive insinuation that Obama was just another black candidate enjoying inconsequential minority support, were watershed moments: The black vote went from 3-to-1 for Obama early in the process to 9-to-1 in Indiana and North Carolina.

While it is true Clinton currently enjoys stronger support from older women and whites than Obama, it borders absurd to suggest those voters will not chose the Democrat candidate over John McCain in November. Clinton's supposed grasp on those demographics is not by the startling ratio in which blacks now turn out for Obama.

And, while the 'bitter' comment and Rev. Wright obviously give some pause, Obama has not spurned white voters with racially-charged comments. He has never suggested Clinton could not get black votes against McCain, though observers could certainly reach that conclusion at this point.

WHO WILL YOU BELIEVE, ME OR YOUR LYING EYES?!

At first it seems hard for Howard Wolfson, Clinton's campaign manager, now a punchless brawler swaying on wobbly knees. What is his argument? To what depths must he reach to muster incredulity when MSNBC's Chris Matthews asks if he truly believes Clinton's claim to the presidency now hinges on seating Michigan as is and the popular vote of Puerto Rico.

Obama's name, as we all know, was not even on the Michigan ballot. And Puerto Rican's cannot vote in the general election.

Rumors that Wolfson has been working on a book deal the last few days certainly don't stem the feeling the race is over.

POLITICS AND SPORTS: A TASTELESS ANALOGY

It is fitting, though perhaps inappropriate to acknowledge, that Clinton's last jog around the track might come in Kentucky, where her choice and the only filly in the Derby field, Eight Belles, was euthanized on the track after finishing second to Big Brown.

Day of Decision

Results Tuesday night were more devastating to Hillary Clinton's campaign than anyone would have anticipated: She lost her momentum, her popular vote gains from Pennsylvania, and virtually any chance of catching Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count.

As the night dragged on and the numbers split Indiana, mainstream media began writing her eulogy.

The word out of Clinton's campaign today is she will press on, but her financials say otherwise: She is broke. Remaining support for her listing campaign from both common donors and her elite bundlers will likely trail off. Her wealthy associates have the scratch to send her way, but why blow your cash when your candidate is on life support?

To add to her funding misery, her campaign revealed this morning that Clinton loaned herself an additional $6.5M, bringing her total investment to more than $11M. At this point, attempts at fundraising will be viewed, cynically yet justifiably, as a means to recoup her own losses and rescue her campaign from the considerable debt it has accrued. Donors are unlikely to send money just to bail her out.

THE DEATH KNELL

George McGovern, who is close to the Clintons and endorsed her candidacy long ago, spoke out today, switching his endorsement to Obama and encouraging Clinton to shut it down. 

McGovern's sentiment should resonate with the Clintons, but especially with superdelegates. There are interesting parallels and intersections between the McGovern and Obama candidacies. It was McGovern who worked after the debacle in 1968 to shift power away from party elites in favor of primary-determined nominations. McGovern challenged party establishment in 1972 and had a strong and surprising showing in Iowa.

McGovern mostly reminds Democrats, though, of the final disturbing chapter of 1972: His nomination, the last decided on the convention floor, produced a schism within the party that resulted in a blow out loss to Richard Nixon.

John McCain could never reenact that landslide, but a divided Democrat party could be decisive. Whether that is certain cannot be something party elders are willing to chance.

STRONG ARMING WITH KID GLOVES

While Clinton did cancel her rounds with the morning talk shows, she was to meet with a group of SDs this afternoon, ostensibly to convince them she is still the better candidate, at least to persuade them to stave off endorsing her opponent a little longer.

Superdelegates might take the opportunity to nudge Clinton toward concession. She likely expected to go to the SDs today with a solid victory in Indiana and a close contest in North Carolina, possibly even touting big overnight fundraising numbers. Of course, none of that happened. The last 24 hours were about as bad as they could have been.

Despite Hillary's apparent loss, SDs are cognizant of the fact the Clintons are still a party powerhouse. And, Clinton's political ambitions will not die here — she still needs the party for her own success. Thus, staying friends is in the interest of everyone involved.

If Clinton must go, she would surely prefer to bow out on her own terms rather than suffer the indignity of being shown the door by a torrent of Obama SDs. And those party insiders certainly want to maintain good relations with her, though exigent political considerations like party unity could force their hands.

Contrary to my prediction earlier today, I don't expect much movement within SD circles for a couple days. Some came out today and more will in the coming days, but not with the swiftness expected. With an eye toward a unified national convention in Denver, SDs must find a way to end this in a manner in which Clinton can save face.

Curtains

If the Obama campaign needed a seminole moment to point to claim momentum, to suggest he had weathered Wright and 'bitter,' to at long last don the monicker of the presumptive nominee, May 6 was his true Super Tuesday.

Superficially, the outcome last night was expected: Obama took North Carolina, Clinton Indiana. At this stage in the game, though, how those races were contested is of much greater significance.

Of more than two million ballots cast in Indiana, Clinton staved off Obama — if it can be viewed that way — by fewer than 25,000 votes.

In N.C., Obama trounced the New York senator by 14 points.

I must profess my admiration for the way Hoosiers represented themselves Tuesday. Pandering and rhetoric were at their height in the final days and the voters of Indiana showed they're more politically savvy than Clinton and others took them for. A split decision signifies a true grappling with the issues; Hoosiers were above the fray. I confess my surprise and convey my respect.

TURN OUT THE LIGHTS

This race is over. Clinton's gains in the popular vote in Pennsylvania were wiped out in N.C. The delegate tally is solidly in Obama's favor. If the process runs its course, Florida and Michigan can be included and Obama will still lead by every metric. 

Clinton canceled all appearances today, a powerful sign she is measuring her options and perhaps seeking the best path to concession. Rumors that she again loaned money to her campaign are an undeniable indication she's in incredible financial straits and the results Tuesday are doubtful to encourage donations. Even if Clinton wants to steam on to West Virginia and Kentucky, even if she denies the inevitability of Obama, the dearth of funds is prohibitive.

Clinton will likely bow out within the week. Her position is impossible and undeniable. The end-game for her was last night. There are no more self-determined paths to victory, shy of suspending disbelief, to support going forward.

Expect an opening round of at least 15 Obama SDs today. It's good to jump aboard as the train is picking up steam and there should be plenty who take the opportunity to say they're with the presumptive winner.

Countdown to the Nomination

Polls in Indiana and North Carolina close in just about an hour on this third and last of Super Tuesdays. The states have 187 delegates between them — Indiana 72, N.C. 115.

It seems necessary to be held to a prediction.

Obama will take N.C. with 53 percent; Clinton will get Indiana with 55. The pledged delegate count will favor Clinton by the slimmest of margins, 94-93. 

The night will leave Obama 181 delegates shy of the nomination, Clinton 321.

The ramifications to be discussed later.

DELEGATES TO SECURE NOMINATION

Obama 275

Clinton 414 

Wednes-D'enouement

Pundits and prognosticators are out in force, spouting predictions of today's winners in North Carolina and Indiana, breaking down the demographics, proffering what it could all mean in November. Some tear a page from Clinton's story line, redefining what is a win … at least when it turns in her favor. MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell, who I genuinely like, went so far as to repeat Clinton's line earlier Monday that Obama predicted a win going into the Hoosier state. He most certainly did not.

The outcomes from these states are foregone conclusions. North Carolina, though slipping of late, will go for Obama. Unfortunately, it seems my fellow Hoosiers are the rubes Clinton thinks them to be. They've fallen to the piper's play, led by the ridiculous and inherently impossible promise of a gas tax holiday, and they will push the state into her corner.

Oh, the virtue of winning favor through seduction and deceit.

Okay, I realize it seems the height the naiveté to think this way. But anyone who understands the basic rule of supply and demand, coupled with the state of American oil refineries — or anyone who can read an editorial — knows this gas tax holiday proposal would, in the end, serve only to boost already record-high oil industry profits. And that is why no economist will sign on. Heck, even N.C. Gov. Mike Easley, who is out stumping for Clinton at this moment, is against the idea.

Despite the universal ridicule Clinton's pandering has suffered the last few days, working class Hoosiers are said to be moved by her tactics.

Cut this story to it's bones: The support Clinton is trumpeting as this week's 'game changer' comes from people easily swayed by promises brought on by exigent necessity, promises that never had a prayer of being enacted or alleviating voters' financial woes, anyway. 

Politics as usual.

THE REAL GAME CHANGER

Should the contests fall as I suggested, or if Obama should pull of an improbable sweep, the truly significant outcome will likely be movement amongst the superdelegate holdouts. After the Indiana and N.C. voters have their say, there will be fewer pledged delegates remaining than the roughly 250 SDs who have yet to announce their support for a candidate. If their collective importance is not now readily apparent, it will be glaring on Wednesday.

Obama has steadily gained ground on Clinton, garnering 75 more SDs than her since Super Tuesday. The 15 point difference between them is the closest Obama has been in this race. While the point could be made Clinton has made inroads on her waining SD support of late — 11 have come out for her since her win in Pennsylvania, compared with her net of two between Super Tuesday and PA — she's also had significant defections. And, despite her victory, Obama still has 10 more SDs than her the last two weeks.

If the candidates split today, expect a cluster of SDs for Obama Wednesday, followed by spurts of SDs the following days into next week. Those elevated party bigwigs know how damaging this primary has become for Democrats in November and they can't possibly be willing to stand by and let this drag on for another bloody month. If Clinton is unable to affect a sea change in this, her Waterloo, she won't likely be afforded more time to do so.

If Obama takes both states, the floodgates will open and Clinton will bow out, whether gracefully or forced, by the end of the week.

If Clinton pulls off an incredible upset, this debacle will go to the Democrat National Convention … and John McCain will be our next president.

Superdelegate Watch

Barack Obama had a big few days with superdelegate pickups, though you surely wouldn't know it with mainstream media's current love affair with the girl from Scranton. CNN.com's Ticker today found it more important to note IRL racer Sarah Fisher's endorsement of Hillary Clinton than to mention SDs, and the next line is probably why.

Obama grabbed nine SDs from Saturday through Monday; Clinton netted one. 

Obama also nipped Clinton in Guam, nabbing the caucus by seven votes out of more than 4,500. Clinton, to her credit, has already made it perfectly clear that caucus states don't really count. Nor do 'red' states. Oh, and 'small' states. States next to Illinois. States where black people vote …

UPDATED TOTALS

Superdelegates: Clinton 273, Obama 258

Pledged delegates: Obama 1,492, Clinton 1,338

Total delegates: Obama 1,750, Clinton 1,611

Since Pennsylvania: Obama 21, Clinton 11

Since Super Tuesday: Obama 88, Clinton 13

Note: Delegate totals from MSNBC.com's First Read.

Kantor Video Appears Doctored

The internet is aflame today over a video from Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign allegedly showing campaign chairman Mickey Kantor calling Hoosiers "s***" and "worthless white n******."

The clip is cut from the movie The War Room, a documentary of the Clinton-Gore campaign and the machine behind it.

I've reviewed the video about a dozen times and it's clear the "s***" remark is actually "s****ing." He's obviously referring to someone being worried.

I've been working the last year almost exclusively on video editing. Dubbing audio over video is easy and can be done well, though it wasn't here. There are tells if you look close enough. 

Watching Kantor's lips during the second and far more egregious comment, it's clear he isn't saying any of those words. 

Another sign the audio is fraudulent is that the sound doesn't match the physical spacing. Kantor is standing several feet from the camera, but the offensive comment sounds as if it's whispered directly into the microphone.

The hacks who whipped this thing together did employ a great diversionary technique: The graphic quote. Putting the words up not only works to seed in your mind what they want you to hear, but it also keeps your eyes off Kantor's lips. The first few times I watched it, I just read along and believed my eyes and not my ears. And that is exactly the effect for which they were hoping.

The video has been removed or blocked on YouTube, but it will undergo incredible scrutiny the next few days in the MSM. I'm sure few who have seen it will be swayed to believe it isn't accurate, though. It could have a tremendous impact in Indiana Tuesday.

Guess we'll all know soon enough.

Hoosiers, This is What a Clinton Advisor Thinks of You

This stunning clip will cut you to the core.

No comment is necessary.

*EDITOR'S NOTE: All references of the video have been removed or blocked on YouTube.

Superdelegate Watch

Since Barack Obama's pledged delegate lead is virtually insurmountable, a running story line and tally of the all-important superdelegate count is in order.

Obama started off the day with a whale. Joe Andrew, whom Bill Clinton appointed as Democratic National Committee chairman in 1999 and who supported Hillary Clinton on the day she announced her candidacy, switched his allegiance to Obama.

Besides the net gain of two SDs for Obama, Andrew's flight is further proof of Clinton's decaying support from within. Bill Richardson and Robert Reich (who is not an SD), two other Clinton stalwarts turned off by her negatives and attracted by Obama's message, began what now seems a building trickle of defections.

Clinton followed with Connecticut AFL-CIO President John Olsen.

Not to be outdone, Obama rolled out Texas AFL-CIO Vice President John Patrick.

But Clinton is the winner on the day so far with four SDs coming from today's New York state convention: NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, NY Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and NY Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

Obama hasn't lost a daily SD count to Clinton since Super Tuesday, so it will be interesting to see if he rolls out a couple more to even the tally. Obama is expected to pick up three SDs from Illinois by next week, but we won't count those chickens just yet.

UPDATED TOTALS

Superdelegates: Clinton 272, Obama 249

Pledged delegates: Obama 1,490, Clinton 1,334

Overall delegates: 1,739, Clinton 1,606

Since Pennsylvania: Obama 12, Clinton 10

Since Super Tuesday: Obama 79, Clinton 12

Note: Delegate totals from MSNBC.com's First Read

Pander Bears

Difficult times call for … well, pandering to voters.

Hillary Clinton and John McCain — who lately seem to be in lock-step on too many issues for anyone's comfort — have proposed a gas tax holiday to lessen the toll on the working class during the peak driving months known as summer.

Since McCain stands little chance at the presidency, and since wife Cindy doesn't even allow him to drive, we'll focus on Clinton's plan. I have to point out, though, that McCain will be 72 in August. Most of our elderly have their licenses taken away by that age. See where I'm going here …

At this point, we must now assume Clinton believes Indiana voters to be a bunch of rubes. She clearly expects — and this only harkens to the old-style politics that caused former Bill Clinton DNC chair appointee and Hillary supporter Joe Andrew to jump ship today and endorse Barack Obama — that Hoosiers can be easily fooled with flashy yet empty solutions. Her pandering is so rife with pitfalls and impossible circumstances as to make it truly laughable … and offensive.

What Clinton doesn't tell voters is simply cutting the tax would result in the loss of about $9 billion, funds that would otherwise go into rebuilding our nation's transportation infrastructure. And it would mean the loss of about 300,000 jobs.

Clinton has tried to temper those facts by offering another empty proposal with a populist touch: Levy a windfall profits tax on the oil industry to supplant lost revenue for roads and bridges.

No Republican will ever sign on to a windfall profits tax, and Clinton surely knows this. Without bipartisan support, it's dead in the water.

But the discussion shouldn't even go that far. Economists are saying the oil industry cannot meet the resultant increased demand, which means higher prices at the pump that ultimately offset the gas tax holiday savings.

The only beneficiaries, it seems, would be Clintons's vote total and oil industry coffers.

Her proposal was panned in editorials today, including the The Washington Post and New York Times.

AND THEN EVERYONE PILED INTO THE CLOWN CAR

My extremely short morning commute invariably includes listening to Bob & Tom — I like to start my day with a good laugh, though they don't always oblige. 

I was surprised when I clicked over to 94.7 yesterday and heard Clinton on the line, riding shotgun with a Hoosier sheet metal worker whose budget is taking a hit at the pump.

The contrived stunt brought about a media circus and Clinton was in three ring mode. She might regret that now.

Since the sheet metal worker's car wasn't big enough to handle the secret service entourage, he had to borrow his employer's massive, gas-guzzling pickup. Then he had to drive 45 minutes to pick Clinton up at her hotel.

Clinton spent the commute chatting up Bob & Tom and ignoring her chauffeur, except when they stopped at a predetermined pump at a predetermined gas station to fill up. But then she mostly posed for the cameras and talked up the benefits of her proposal while answering to when she last bought gas for herself. Nineteen ninety-never, I'm guessing.

Apparently she's never been inside a convenience store, either.

The best shot, though, was Clinton's lead truck rounding a bend with her caravan of low-mileage SUVs in tow. Maybe she should stop publicity hounding and give Hoosiers the money she saves in gas. If her campaign had any money, she just might.