The outcomes from these states are foregone conclusions. North Carolina, though slipping of late, will go for Obama. Unfortunately, it seems my fellow Hoosiers are the rubes Clinton thinks them to be. They've fallen to the piper's play, led by the ridiculous and inherently impossible promise of a gas tax holiday, and they will push the state into her corner.
Oh, the virtue of winning favor through seduction and deceit.
Okay, I realize it seems the height the naiveté to think this way. But anyone who understands the basic rule of supply and demand, coupled with the state of American oil refineries — or anyone who can read an editorial — knows this gas tax holiday proposal would, in the end, serve only to boost already record-high oil industry profits. And that is why no economist will sign on. Heck, even N.C. Gov. Mike Easley, who is out stumping for Clinton at this moment, is against the idea.
Despite the universal ridicule Clinton's pandering has suffered the last few days, working class Hoosiers are said to be moved by her tactics.
Cut this story to it's bones: The support Clinton is trumpeting as this week's 'game changer' comes from people easily swayed by promises brought on by exigent necessity, promises that never had a prayer of being enacted or alleviating voters' financial woes, anyway.
Politics as usual.
THE REAL GAME CHANGER
Should the contests fall as I suggested, or if Obama should pull of an improbable sweep, the truly significant outcome will likely be movement amongst the superdelegate holdouts. After the Indiana and N.C. voters have their say, there will be fewer pledged delegates remaining than the roughly 250 SDs who have yet to announce their support for a candidate. If their collective importance is not now readily apparent, it will be glaring on Wednesday.
Obama has steadily gained ground on Clinton, garnering 75 more SDs than her since Super Tuesday. The 15 point difference between them is the closest Obama has been in this race. While the point could be made Clinton has made inroads on her waining SD support of late — 11 have come out for her since her win in Pennsylvania, compared with her net of two between Super Tuesday and PA — she's also had significant defections. And, despite her victory, Obama still has 10 more SDs than her the last two weeks.
If the candidates split today, expect a cluster of SDs for Obama Wednesday, followed by spurts of SDs the following days into next week. Those elevated party bigwigs know how damaging this primary has become for Democrats in November and they can't possibly be willing to stand by and let this drag on for another bloody month. If Clinton is unable to affect a sea change in this, her Waterloo, she won't likely be afforded more time to do so.
If Obama takes both states, the floodgates will open and Clinton will bow out, whether gracefully or forced, by the end of the week.
If Clinton pulls off an incredible upset, this debacle will go to the Democrat National Convention … and John McCain will be our next president.
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