Day of Decision

Results Tuesday night were more devastating to Hillary Clinton's campaign than anyone would have anticipated: She lost her momentum, her popular vote gains from Pennsylvania, and virtually any chance of catching Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count.

As the night dragged on and the numbers split Indiana, mainstream media began writing her eulogy.

The word out of Clinton's campaign today is she will press on, but her financials say otherwise: She is broke. Remaining support for her listing campaign from both common donors and her elite bundlers will likely trail off. Her wealthy associates have the scratch to send her way, but why blow your cash when your candidate is on life support?

To add to her funding misery, her campaign revealed this morning that Clinton loaned herself an additional $6.5M, bringing her total investment to more than $11M. At this point, attempts at fundraising will be viewed, cynically yet justifiably, as a means to recoup her own losses and rescue her campaign from the considerable debt it has accrued. Donors are unlikely to send money just to bail her out.

THE DEATH KNELL

George McGovern, who is close to the Clintons and endorsed her candidacy long ago, spoke out today, switching his endorsement to Obama and encouraging Clinton to shut it down. 

McGovern's sentiment should resonate with the Clintons, but especially with superdelegates. There are interesting parallels and intersections between the McGovern and Obama candidacies. It was McGovern who worked after the debacle in 1968 to shift power away from party elites in favor of primary-determined nominations. McGovern challenged party establishment in 1972 and had a strong and surprising showing in Iowa.

McGovern mostly reminds Democrats, though, of the final disturbing chapter of 1972: His nomination, the last decided on the convention floor, produced a schism within the party that resulted in a blow out loss to Richard Nixon.

John McCain could never reenact that landslide, but a divided Democrat party could be decisive. Whether that is certain cannot be something party elders are willing to chance.

STRONG ARMING WITH KID GLOVES

While Clinton did cancel her rounds with the morning talk shows, she was to meet with a group of SDs this afternoon, ostensibly to convince them she is still the better candidate, at least to persuade them to stave off endorsing her opponent a little longer.

Superdelegates might take the opportunity to nudge Clinton toward concession. She likely expected to go to the SDs today with a solid victory in Indiana and a close contest in North Carolina, possibly even touting big overnight fundraising numbers. Of course, none of that happened. The last 24 hours were about as bad as they could have been.

Despite Hillary's apparent loss, SDs are cognizant of the fact the Clintons are still a party powerhouse. And, Clinton's political ambitions will not die here — she still needs the party for her own success. Thus, staying friends is in the interest of everyone involved.

If Clinton must go, she would surely prefer to bow out on her own terms rather than suffer the indignity of being shown the door by a torrent of Obama SDs. And those party insiders certainly want to maintain good relations with her, though exigent political considerations like party unity could force their hands.

Contrary to my prediction earlier today, I don't expect much movement within SD circles for a couple days. Some came out today and more will in the coming days, but not with the swiftness expected. With an eye toward a unified national convention in Denver, SDs must find a way to end this in a manner in which Clinton can save face.